Details

2012 Asia and Africa today

THE SITUATION AROUND IRAN

In May 2012 a meeting at the Department of Global Problems and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS) took place. The participants of the meeting have discussed the situation around Iran. The keynote address “Iran as the Shiite superpower: real and imaginary challenges» was made by Academician A.M.Vasiliev.
Co-reports were made by Academician S.M.Rogov, Academician A.G.Arbatov and P.V.Stegny, Dr.Sc. (History). During the discussion the corresponding member of RAS I.S.Ivanov has given a detailed account of the position of Russia on Iran’s nuclear program.
The journal publishes abstracts of the reports made by the participants of this meeting.

IRAN AS THE SHIITE SUPERPOWER: REAL AND IMAGINARY CHALLENGES by A.M.Vasiliev, Academi- cian, RAN

Keywords: Iran, international relations, U.S. - Israel - Iran, nonproliferation of nuclear weapons

Characterizing the internal situation in Iran, the author notes that the regime of «Shiite democracy» has proved that it can achieve positive economic results. However, the economic system itself, 70% of which is public sector, and which largely rests on huge subsidies, is becoming more and more corrupt and less effective. Bearing in mind acceleration of changes in the world, growing and often unpredictable impact of information technologies, one can not assert with full confidence that the regime is strong and stable. But the Iranian ruling elite will not permit a «Gorbachev’s scenario».
As far as the international cooperation is concerned, the key factor determining the relationship between Tehran and the outside world, is the Iranian nuclear program. Unfortunately, the current situation is characterized by extreme nervousness and uncertainty. It is difficult to say what will prevail: the emotional and irrational egoistic interests of leaders - the US, Iran and Israel, or balanced, responsible approach to the fate of the region and of the entire world, of the global interests of the international community, i.e. an approach which would eliminate a danger of war.
A.Vasiliev believes that there is nevertheless an objective possibility of cooperation between Iran and the U.S. and even Israel, both in economy and in providing peace, security and stability in the region.

IRAN’S ROLE IN U.S. POLICY IN THE MIDDLE EAST by S.M.Rogov, Academician

Keywords: Iran, international relations, U.S., Middle East

More than three decades confrontation between the U.S. and Iran has been going on. This is one of the longest international conflict. In this connection the author puts a question straight: is it an irreconcilable conflict between the U.S. and Iran a real clash of interests? S.Rogov analyzes nuclear deterrence policy pursued by the U.S. against Iran and considers some possible scenarios of the use of military force by the United States and Israel against Iranian nuclear facilities, as well as implications of possible military conflict for regional and international security.

CREEPING CRISIS by A.G.Arbatov, Academician

Keywords: Iran, nuclear program

The crisis over Iran’s nuclear program is lasting for about ten years. During that period the U.S. has made a number ofserious errors and bears full responsibility for them. The author believes, after the attacks of September 11, 2001 there was an opportunity to limit the peaceful Iranian nuclear program but that chance was missed. Then the aggression against Iraq has followed, the occupation of Afghanistan, the arbitrary use of power in Libya. All those actions made it next to impossible to overcome the deadlock over Iran’s nuclear program and undermined the Treaty on the Non- Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT).
According A.G.Arbatov, now Iran is on the «nuclear threshold», and there is every reason to believe that Iran’s nuclear program is military in nature.
Unfortunately, the possession of nuclear weapon by Iran will completely ruin the NPT and will provoke a chain reaction of proliferation of nuclear weapons, mainly around the perimeter of Russia. Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Turkey and other states may follow the example of Iran. The author comes to a sad conclusion that the nature of new nuclear regimes virtually ensures that nuclear weapons or weapons materials will fall into terrorist hands.

ISRAEL-IRAN CONFRONTATION: REGIONAL AND GLOBAL RISKS by P.V.Stegniy, Dr.Sc. (History)

Keywords: Iran, Israel, nuclear program

In Israel, the Iranian nuclear program is considered as an existential threat. The Israeli prime-minister Benjamin Netanyahu believes that the Iran’s program has a secret nuclear military component, which is directly threatening Israel’s existence. In this regard, since 2009 the Israeli leadership made several statements about the readiness of pre-emptive strike on Iranian nuclear facilities. The author concludes that there is a high probability of a military strike on Iranian nuclear facilities, given the escalation of tensions between Israel and Iran and the strengthening of hostile rhetoric against each other,.

IRANIAN NUCLEAR PROGRAM: POSITION OF RUSSIA by I.S.Ivanov, Corresponding Member of RAS

Keywords: Iran, Russia, nuclear program

The author examines Russia’s position in relation to the Iranian nuclear dossier. In the negotiations between Russia and Iran, Moscow has never allowed the possibility of the appearance of an Iranian nuclear weapon. The question was how to draw a line, which allows to develop nuclear energy, but excludes military developments. The setting up of the negotiation mechanism of the «5+1» on Iran’s nuclear program was an initiative of Russia.
Nowadays the unity of action of «six» of international mediators and increasing of their activity is as necessary as ever.

REVOLT IN THE ARABIAN WORLD: CROPS AND SHOOTS

NATO’S OPERATION “JOINT PROTECTOR”: THE REVERSE SIDE OF THE MEDAL by M.S.Khodynskaya- Golenishcheva, PhD (History)

Keywords: Libya, NATO, “Joint Protector”, the UN Security Council, the UN Human Rights Council, the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe

The article focuses on civil victims of NATO airstrikes in Libya during the “Joint Protector” operation. The initial goal of the operation was to defend civilians in Libya. Nevertheless, very soon it turned into a blunt support of oneside in an internal conflict. The author gives data on victims of airstrikes as well as on Libyan refugees who lost their life as a result of NATO’s unwillingness to provide them necessary help.

AFRICA: IMPLEMENTATION OF «THE MIL- LENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS» by I.B.Matsenko, PhD (Economy), part 1

Keywords: Africa, the Millennium Development Goals, poverty, economic growth

The article focuses on the implementation of «Millennium Development Goals» (MDGs) in Africa, adopted in 2000. The main target of MDGs - is eradication of extreme poverty (in the period between 1990 and 2015 to half the share of population with income less than 41 руб. per person a day). It is noted that Sub-Saharan Africa seriously lags behind in achieving this goal from other developing regions.

QATAR AND THE UNITED STATES MODERN RELATIONS by E.O.Kasayev

Keywords: Qatar, the US, trade, investment, military cooperation

The author reviews trade, investment, political and military relations between Qatar and the United States, forecasts the prospects of further development of these relations, and comes to conclusion that today’s comprehensive cooperation between Doha and Washington is of strategic character and that kind of relation will remain the same in the future.

RACIAL DISCOURSE AND THE IMAGE OF AFRICA by V.V.Usachyova, PhD (Political Science)

Keywords: image of Africa, racism, racial discourse, American racial experience, global media

The author examines the racial discourse and its distinctive features, including the stylistic and thematic, belief systems and ways of reasoning. In general, anything that can be integrated into concept of ideology. Particular attention is paid to racial discourse was formed and developed in America which for decades defined the way of presentation of the image of Africa and its peoples.

NOWDAYS NORTH KOREA HAS THE ONLY ONE SUPPORT - CHINA by O.B.Kiryanov (part 1 in “Asia and Africa Today”, 2012, № 6)

Keywords: China, North Korea, trade and economic relations, investments

Once in 2008, South Korea has committed itself to minimize the economic and trade relations with Democratic People’s Republic of Korea Pyongyang has no other choice but to strengthen the economic and trade relations with China.
The author believes that, in the coming years, North Korea and China will only strengthen and intensify bilateral cooperation, which will result first of all in expansion of bilateral trade and other forms of interaction. Beijing and Pyongyang share common stance on the most important issue: both countries are interested in preserving the situation in the DPRK stable and predictable.

SOUTHERN SUDAN. INDEPENDENCE, WHAT NEXT? by S.V.Mezentsev, PhD (Military Science), part 1

Keywords: South Sudan, Sudan, oil, conflict, political settlement

Will the youngest independent nation on the planet - Southern Sudan become a prosperous country? Already now it is called the «Rising Star of Africa». The author, who has recently visited Juba - South Sudan capital, is analyzing the political and economic prospects of the country.
Unfortunately, critical unresolved contradictions between Juba and Khartoum, primarily on the disputed oil- bearing basins and the price of oil transportation through the territory of the North Sudan are breeding ground for the emergence of new armed clashes between the two countries.
According to international experts, the risks of oil investment in South Sudan may exceed the allowable, which would make it impossible to implement development projects aimed at construction of oil export infrastructure, in the near future at least.

CHINA: 10 YEARS AS MEMBER Of THE WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION (WTO) by I.V.Vakhrushin, PhD (Economy), S.P.Savinsky, PhD (Economy)

Keywords: China, WTO, economy

Review of the Conference “China: 10 years as a member of WTO” hold in the Center for Economic and Social Studies of China Institute of Far Eastern Studies, RUS.

MODERN FOREIGN TRADE POLICY OF THE REPUBLIC OF SOUTH AFRICA: ON THE ROAD TO ECONOMIC PROSPERITY by V.V. Podkholyuzin

Keywords: South Africa, economy of the Republic of South Africa, foreign trade of developing countries

In May 2010 the South African Department of Trade and Industry published the document titled Framework of South African Trade Policy and Strategy. The document determines the path of economic development till 2013 taking into consideration the country’s economic performance, changing conditions of international competition, offers updated trade policy. It defines necessity to increase the competitiveness of South Africa in the global market as the main goal for coming years.

PAKISTAN. LIVING ACCORDING TO LAWS OF FAITH AND BLOOD RELATIONSHIP by M.V.Haytseva

Keywords: Pakistan, intercultural communication, traditions

Pakistan - is a veritable boiling cauldron: the endless bombings and armed clashes with militants of Taliban, the internal political mess, intervention of local intelligence into Afghan affairs, zig-zags in relations with the United States. The author, who visited Pakistan late 2011, shares with readers with her observations, trying to understand how Pakistanis lives in his whirl of modern life, preserving their traditions of kinship and devotion to Islam.

MYSTERIOUS SOCOTRA by A.B.Sarabyev, PhD (History)

Keywords: Yemen, Socotra, social structure, cultural dynamics, Islamization

For a long time the Socotran society has been living in social and cultural isolation, maintaining inviolable traditions of their ancestors and habitual way of life, experiencing large- scale shifts in social, economic, cultural and religious spheres. Civilization «jump» experienced by Socotrans has very ambiguous impact on the lives of this peculiar people.

Summary